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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd